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The only certain thing in this tight election is that all the polls are wrong

Opinium’s poll in the Observer this weekend shows a Conservative lead of 14%, yet BMG’s poll for the Independent has it at only 6%, which is a massive spread.

At this stage in the election a record 1 in 6 people claim to be undecided. In 2017, the undecideds broke for Corbyn and he grew his share of the vote by 4% versus the final poll of polls. Apply that to BMG’s result and we are in deep hung government territory. However, if Corbyn’s tarnished image means and the majority vote for Boris this time, adding 4% to Opinium’s result, we will witness the largest-ever Conservative landslide in history.

The point is - I don’t know which way they will go and neither do any of the polls.


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