No pollster can be sure how this election will end
Much has been made of YouGov’s MRP poll predicting a Conservative majority of 68, which moved the money markets and has the political parties and media in a tizz. Labour has already pivoted its entire election strategy to target Leave voters in the north in its wake.
MRP is a new methodology that YouGov used for the first time in a UK General election in 2017, which was ‘the only poll to correctly predict a hung Parliament’. Yet YouGov’s prediction on the night before the election was: “Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority”. Err? Well that was the result from another poll using a conventional methodology. So, if I had conducted two polls with different predicted outcomes I would be able, like YouGov, to retrospectively choose the one closest to the result and trumpet how clever I was.
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